The Dodgers. The Giants. A-Gon Edition!

Well, the National League West just got a bit more interesting. Probably. As you may have heard, The Dodgers acquired Adrian Gonzalez, Carl Crawford, Josh Beckett, and Nick Punto from the Red Sox for Rubby De La Rosa, James Loney, and a couple prospects. Probably. As of this writing, the trade has not been confirmed. So I’m going to write “probably” after everything.

You may have also seen, but probably not, that I forecasted the results of the NL West a couple of days ago, and predicted that the Dodgers would come out on top. Since that post, besides this trade that probably happened, the Giants also swept the Dodgers. So I have decided to run the numbers again. And here are the results:

Dodgers current record: 67-58

Previous forecast: 92-70

New forecast: 92-70

So no change, although the trade does help them out. Adrian Gonzalez is worth +1.0 wins over the 0 win James Loney, plus the negative win Juan Rivera. Nick Punto kind of replaces Jerry Hairston, who is out for the season, and Josh Beckett replaces Joe Blanton in the rotation. Beckett adds about 0.2 wins, so in total, the trade should add about 1.2 wins over the remainder of the season. But, they also lost two games against the Giants, so they’re in a bit worse place to start off. Adjusting the rest of the players for the remainder of the season, and you come out with 13.4 wins plus 11.4 wins for a replacement team, and you come out with 24.8 more wins – or a 92-70 record.

Giants current record: 70-55

Previous forecast: 90-72

New forecast: 92-70

Oh, boy. A tie! The Giants are now forecasted for 21.8 more wins, which would put them at 92-70, tied with the Dodgers. Hooray for the NL West! Probably.



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