Can McCutchen hit .400?Posted: July 16, 2012
Word on the street is that some fellow named Andrew McCutchen is doing quite well for the Pirates of Pittsburgh this season. As of this date, July 16, he is leading the majors in batting average @ .371, which includes a .416 stretch over his last 149 ABs dating back to June 1. This is impressive. He is also 48 for his last 100. Don’t bother getting out your calculator – that’s a .480 average. What I’m wondering, is what McCutchen would have to do over the rest of the season to finish with a 400 average. So I decided to figure it out using complex mathematical formulas.
So far, McCutchen has played in 84 of the Pirates 89 games – on pace for 153 games. I’m going to say he ends up with 155 though, because I play by my own rules. He has 357 plate appearances and 321 ABs over those 84 games, putting him on pace for 659 and 592 in 155 games. McCutchen would need 237 hits in 592 at-bats to finish above .400. He currently has 119 hits in his 321 ABS. That means he needs 118 more hits (He’s more than half-way there!) in 271 remaining ABs. That’s a .435 average. Which is high. He does have a higher average than that over his last 30 games though. So there’s that.
Will McCutchen get to .400 by season’s end? Unlikely, but not completely out of the question. Probably something like a 1% chance.
This concludes Can McCutchen hit .400 – A Scientific Study.
Also, in case you were wondering, Brendan Ryan who currently has the lowest average in the majors among qualifiers at .183, would need to go 127 for 188 until the end of the season to end up with a .400 average. That’s a .676 average, which is 121 points higher than his current OPS, so you can probably bet against it. Unless someone gives you 2 million to 1 odds or something. Then why wouldn’t you at least throw at least a dollar on it? I mean, the risk-reward is pretty heavily in your favor. Unless you were planning on using that dollar for something else. Like a soda, or something. Then you might want to reconsider.
**Please check out my July 24 update here.