2012 Standings Projection – All-Star Break Update

Since it’s the All-Star break, I decided to take a look back at my pre-season standings projections, and see how I was doing so far. Here are the results:

AL East Proj W On Pace Diff NL East Proj W On Pace Diff
New York 95 99 4.1 Philadelphia 93 69 24.1
Tampa Bay 93 85 8.2 Atlanta 85 88 2.7
Boston 92 81 11.0 Miami 84 78 5.9
Toronto 85 81 4.0 Washington 84 96 11.6
Baltimore 70 86 15.8 New York 75 87 11.7
AL Central Proj W On Pace Diff NL Central Proj W On Pace Diff
Detroit 84 83 1.1 Cincinnati 89 90 0.6
Cleveland 78 84 5.9 St. Louis 85 87 1.7
Chicago 76 90 13.6 Milwaukee 84 76 7.8
Kansas City 75 71 3.6 Pittsburgh 72 91 19.5
Minnesota 72 69 3.4 Chicago 70 63 7.1
Houston 63 62 0.8
AL West Proj W On Pace Diff NL West Proj W On Pace Diff
Texas 93 98 5.0 Arizona 82 80 2.0
Los Angeles 93 90 2.6 San Francisco 80 87 6.7
Oakland 76 81 5.0 Colorado 80 63 17.1
Seattle 72 67 5.0 Los Angeles 76 88 11.5
San Diego 74 63 10.7

The biggest variance of any team so far is the Phillies, who I projected for 93 wins, but are only on pace for 69; a difference of 24. As a whole, I’m closer in the AL so far, with an average variance of 6.3 wins, compared to 8.8 for the National League. The average for all teams is a variance of 7.6 wins from my projection. 14 out of 30 teams have a variance of 5 wins or less, 6 teams are between 5-10; and the remaining 10 teams have a more than 10 win variance. On the whole, things are looking alright, but I’ll review again at the end of the season to see where I ended up.

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